Ontario’s new long-term power plan good, but demonstrates difficulty in planning

My Clean Break column takes a look at some of the new assumptions in Ontario’s latest 20-year electricity plan — assumptions that have changed dramatically since the previous plan was introduced (but never formally approved) three years ago. Electricity demand that we were supposed to reach before 2015 has now been delayed to beyond 2030. Now that’s quite the gap. More than that, the newer forecast takes into account the impact of electric-vehicle charging on the grid and the plethora of power-sucking gadgets populating our homes, while the previous forecast didn’t (at least not as much). Five years ago, Ontario was going to convert its Thunder Bay coal-fired power station to run on natural gas. Gas was cheap back when the decison was made, but the plan was cancelled a couple of years later after gas prices shot up to record highs. We took a $10 to $13 million cancellation penalty for that decision. Now, thanks to a bounty of shale gas, the option isn’t just back on the table, it’s going ahead. More than that, the government is now seriously looking at converting a number of other coal-fired units (at Nanticoke and Lambton) to natural gas.
http://theenergycollective.com/tyhamilton/47703/ontario-s-new-long-term-power-plan-good-demonstrates-difficulty-planning